Wk12 MacroTechnicals - If Iran Stands, Trump Doesn't
Stagflation risks are building and reshaping the macro regime. We assess the current backdrop to examine whether these conditions could be short-lived or likely to persist.
Who Is Actually Running the Islamic Republic of Iran Now?
Wk11 MacroTechnicals - Letting The Winners Run
Geopolitical basket and stronger Dollar thesis may still have further to run, and an old discussion with a colleague shapes how I manage my book today.
Wk10 MacroTechnicals - Ballistic Volatility
A long and stretched risk-on cycle now meets fresh war and inflation risks with accelerants in place.
Wk9 MacroTechnicals - Trading Ranges, not Dollar Places
Dollar debate is just noise, tactical playbook for a choppy SPX/ES tape and vol regime and how the latest data trends shapes my views
Wk8 MacroTechnicals - Mood Swings
Weaker breadth, elevated vol, and a negative-gamma tape spells more choppy trading
Wk7 MacroTechnicals - SaaSpocalypse lows are in
Two charts that could signal "We're so back!"
Wk6 MacroTechnicals - Debasement-trade Reversal Is Not Real
Positioning likely drove last week’s violent moves so taking chart-signals with a pinch of salt. USD confidence unlikely to have improved, Geopol premiums to stay elevated, PMs and Oil for re-entry longs, Equities show signs of fatigue, and FX/Rates signals messy with USD correlations breaking down.
Week5 MacroTechnicals - Stretched...
Shutdown risk is back in focus as markets look stretcheddd as it it's just looking for a reason to snap back and to get a short-term reset in some monster rallies.
Week4 MacroTechnicals - Complacency on Green Ice
US data supports a no-rush Fed, equities broaden but short-vol trades look crowded and now see reasons to take some conviction on bearish risk ideas as geopolitics heats up.
Week3 MacroTechnicals - Strong Growth, with a Side of Vol
AI capex and fiscal tailwinds keeps the growth outlook hot. Soft payrolls, but firmer wages, strong ISM services, even Challenger had some positive points for once. Equities broaden, SMids lead, but short-vol look stretched.
Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints
Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG