Markets are trading relief but macro backdrop grows more fragile. We reflect on recent developments against our going views and cover why we are biased toward trades that respect the possibility of markets underpricing stagflation risks.
Durable bottom or just a dead-cat bounce?
Oil shocks do not land the same way in every cycle. We compare 1979, 1990 and 2022 to today’s 2026 backdrop to assess whether equities are nearing a durable relief rally — or facing a more persistent stagflationary squeeze.
2022 may be a more relevant roadmap for 2026 than markets assume. Reviewing the macro and geopolitical parallels, why the Iran conflict may drag on, and which trading themes to keep in mind.
Stagflation risks are building and reshaping the macro regime. We assess the current backdrop to examine whether these conditions could be short-lived or likely to persist.
Geopolitical basket and stronger Dollar thesis may still have further to run, and an old discussion with a colleague shapes how I manage my book today.
A long and stretched risk-on cycle now meets fresh war and inflation risks with accelerants in place.
Dollar debate is just noise, tactical playbook for a choppy SPX/ES tape and vol regime and how the latest data trends shapes my views
Weaker breadth, elevated vol, and a negative-gamma tape spells more choppy trading
Two charts that could signal "We're so back!"
Positioning likely drove last week’s violent moves so taking chart-signals with a pinch of salt. USD confidence unlikely to have improved, Geopol premiums to stay elevated, PMs and Oil for re-entry longs, Equities show signs of fatigue, and FX/Rates signals messy with USD correlations breaking down.