Wk30 MacroTechnicals - Disruptive Forces
US–Iran escalation. AI competition.
Wk29 MacroTechnicals - A Crude Awakening
Meaningful risk of bearish regime-shift
Wk28 MacroTechnicals - Hawkwardly Optimistic
Tension between tighter liquidity and positive sentiment continues...
Wk27 MacroTechnicals - The Price of Exceptionalism
Quarter-end review and just more of the same risks - AI capex and model commoditisation, strong growth and inflation, and tigher fincon
Wk26 MacroTechnicals - No Breadth of Fresh Air
Equities firm but leadership narrows as the Fed’s hawkish turn erodes breadth. Beneath the surface, Tighter conditions and AI-profit risks point to a fragile medium-term outlook.
Wk25 MacroTechnicals - Sticky Landing
Deal-on Risk-on is back, yields lower, but don't think the market will be Warshing away hiking risks too soon
Wk24 MacroTechnicals - Trimmed Gets Mean
If CPI confirms bleed through into core, there is nothing Warsh can say or do to convince the market otherwise
Wk23 MacroTechnicals - Dispersion Trap
Comfortable markets, uncomfortable backdrop
Wk22 MacroTechnicals - Bullish Optics, Bearish Reality
AI and Iran deal optimism collides with rising inflation risk and tightening fincon
Wk21 MacroTechnicals - Bloody Car Crash
Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership
Wk20 MacroTechnicals - Is This The Top?
Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution
Wk19 - Sell in May and Go Away?
Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.