Wk12 MacroTechnicals - If Iran Stands, Trump Doesn't

Stagflation risks are building and reshaping the macro regime. We assess the current backdrop to examine whether these conditions could be short-lived or likely to persist.

Who Is Actually Running the Islamic Republic of Iran Now?

Wk11 MacroTechnicals - Letting The Winners Run

Geopolitical basket and stronger Dollar thesis may still have further to run, and an old discussion with a colleague shapes how I manage my book today.

Wk10 MacroTechnicals - Ballistic Volatility

A long and stretched risk-on cycle now meets fresh war and inflation risks with accelerants in place.

Wk9 MacroTechnicals - Trading Ranges, not Dollar Places

Dollar debate is just noise, tactical playbook for a choppy SPX/ES tape and vol regime and how the latest data trends shapes my views

Wk8 MacroTechnicals - Mood Swings

Weaker breadth, elevated vol, and a negative-gamma tape spells more choppy trading

Wk7 MacroTechnicals - SaaSpocalypse lows are in

Two charts that could signal "We're so back!"

Wk6 MacroTechnicals - Debasement-trade Reversal Is Not Real

Positioning likely drove last week’s violent moves so taking chart-signals with a pinch of salt. USD confidence unlikely to have improved, Geopol premiums to stay elevated, PMs and Oil for re-entry longs, Equities show signs of fatigue, and FX/Rates signals messy with USD correlations breaking down.

Week5 MacroTechnicals - Stretched...

Shutdown risk is back in focus as markets look stretcheddd as it it's just looking for a reason to snap back and to get a short-term reset in some monster rallies.

Week4 MacroTechnicals - Complacency on Green Ice

US data supports a no-rush Fed, equities broaden but short-vol trades look crowded and now see reasons to take some conviction on bearish risk ideas as geopolitics heats up.

Week3 MacroTechnicals - Strong Growth, with a Side of Vol

AI capex and fiscal tailwinds keeps the growth outlook hot. Soft payrolls, but firmer wages, strong ISM services, even Challenger had some positive points for once. Equities broaden, SMids lead, but short-vol look stretched.

Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints

Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG

Week1 MacroTechnicals - BTC/XAG thoughts

Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.

Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town

Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.

Week51 MacroTechnicals - Tactical Gear On

December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.

Week50 MacroTechnicals - Are We Still FOMU'ing?

Goldilocks US data supports risk, but I’m watching for further bear steepening and bouts of rates volatility. Positioning stays core long, but I’m tactically bearish small caps and metals, bullish USD and NZD, bearish CAD and JPY, and still look to buy cross-JPY on dips.

Week49 MacroTechnicals - Six-Seven

We were on six, now seven! 🤲🤲 Is there fuel for an eighth?

Trading Strategy - TrendX

Trend Exhaustion Indicator

Week48 MacroTechnicals - Basing for a year-end rally

US data stays resilient; December FOMC is finely balanced with members expressing more caution. Rough week for Equities but may stabilise if volatility eases from here. Safe-haven flows supported Treasuries and USD causing distortions in rate differentials requiring careful evaluation.

Week47 MacroTechnicals- Bullish but doubtful

A revival in risk is at the mercy of NVDA earnings. Aside that, I don't see what bullish arguments can be made...

Week46 MacroTechnicals - Buy Everything

Buy everything! But beware of higher rates too.

Week45 MacroTechnicals - Tailwinds become Headwinds

Big news. Conventional wisdom would say this is massively risk-on - 1) a swift reversal in all retaliatory measures may have come as a slight surprise, and 2) the 1-year truce will now lift a huge veil of uncertainty that has weighed on economic activity for the majority of 2025.

Week44 MacroTechnicals - Relative Exceptionalism

Trump, China, and trade - why this will be the overriding driver of markets and likely to extend the bull run in risk. Returning to a popular USD framework. A longer-term thesis for the USD. Game plan

Week43 MacroTechnicals - Flippage

Flippage - Was bearish risk this time last week, but a TACO headline and Trump confirming the meeting with Xi would go ahead to result in trade tensions simmering down till the end of the month, as well as how the charts have evolved over the last week has shifted my view on risk.