Warsh took AI disinflation off the table, said economy at full employment, put emphasis on inflation breadth and price stability being the predominant focus. This is a hike signal...
Failed Bessentvention, ATH crack spreads, Elevated inflation risks, Debasement skepticism
Messy thematic signals - easing macro regimes and low VIX clashes with rising commodity prices
Rates calmer but term premium higher, risk sentiment strong but overly complacent?
Long-end tantrum may be done for now
Risk view stays bearish: tighter liquidity conditions ongoing AI concerns, weak equity leadership, vol expansion,
US–Iran escalation. AI competition.
Meaningful risk of bearish regime-shift
Tension between tighter liquidity and positive sentiment continues...
Quarter-end review and just more of the same risks - AI capex and model commoditisation, strong growth and inflation, and tigher fincon
Equities firm but leadership narrows as the Fed’s hawkish turn erodes breadth. Beneath the surface, Tighter conditions and AI-profit risks point to a fragile medium-term outlook.
Deal-on Risk-on is back, yields lower, but don't think the market will be Warshing away hiking risks too soon
If CPI confirms bleed through into core, there is nothing Warsh can say or do to convince the market otherwise
Comfortable markets, uncomfortable backdrop
AI and Iran deal optimism collides with rising inflation risk and tightening fincon
Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership
Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution
Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.
Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.
Geopolitical tensions persist and energy-driven inflation builds, markets may be underpricing deeper macro risks beneath a technically driven rebound
Markets are trading relief but macro backdrop grows more fragile. We reflect on recent developments against our going views and cover why we are biased toward trades that respect the possibility of markets underpricing stagflation risks.
Durable bottom or just a dead-cat bounce?
Oil shocks do not land the same way in every cycle. We compare 1979, 1990 and 2022 to today’s 2026 backdrop to assess whether equities are nearing a durable relief rally — or facing a more persistent stagflationary squeeze.
2022 may be a more relevant roadmap for 2026 than markets assume. Reviewing the macro and geopolitical parallels, why the Iran conflict may drag on, and which trading themes to keep in mind.