Wk21 MacroTechnicals - Bloody Car Crash

Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership

Wk20 MacroTechnicals - Is This The Top?

Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution

Wk19 - Sell in May and Go Away?

Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.

Wk18 MacroTechnicals - Deal or No Deal?

Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.

Wk17 MacroTechnicals - The Rubber Band Trade

Geopolitical tensions persist and energy-driven inflation builds, markets may be underpricing deeper macro risks beneath a technically driven rebound

Wk16 MacroTechnicals - 'Stag'-gering Denial

Markets are trading relief but macro backdrop grows more fragile. We reflect on recent developments against our going views and cover why we are biased toward trades that respect the possibility of markets underpricing stagflation risks.

Wk15 MacroTechnicals - Dead Cat Bounce

Durable bottom or just a dead-cat bounce?

Wk14 MacroTechnicals - Contextual Insights

Oil shocks do not land the same way in every cycle. We compare 1979, 1990 and 2022 to today’s 2026 backdrop to assess whether equities are nearing a durable relief rally — or facing a more persistent stagflationary squeeze.

Wk13 MacroTechnicals - Echoes of 2022

2022 may be a more relevant roadmap for 2026 than markets assume. Reviewing the macro and geopolitical parallels, why the Iran conflict may drag on, and which trading themes to keep in mind.

Wk12 MacroTechnicals - If Iran Stands, Trump Doesn't

Stagflation risks are building and reshaping the macro regime. We assess the current backdrop to examine whether these conditions could be short-lived or likely to persist.

Who Is Actually Running the Islamic Republic of Iran Now?

Wk11 MacroTechnicals - Letting The Winners Run

Geopolitical basket and stronger Dollar thesis may still have further to run, and an old discussion with a colleague shapes how I manage my book today.

Wk10 MacroTechnicals - Ballistic Volatility

A long and stretched risk-on cycle now meets fresh war and inflation risks with accelerants in place.

Wk9 MacroTechnicals - Trading Ranges, not Dollar Places

Dollar debate is just noise, tactical playbook for a choppy SPX/ES tape and vol regime and how the latest data trends shapes my views

Wk8 MacroTechnicals - Mood Swings

Weaker breadth, elevated vol, and a negative-gamma tape spells more choppy trading

Wk7 MacroTechnicals - SaaSpocalypse lows are in

Two charts that could signal "We're so back!"

Wk6 MacroTechnicals - Debasement-trade Reversal Is Not Real

Positioning likely drove last week’s violent moves so taking chart-signals with a pinch of salt. USD confidence unlikely to have improved, Geopol premiums to stay elevated, PMs and Oil for re-entry longs, Equities show signs of fatigue, and FX/Rates signals messy with USD correlations breaking down.

Week5 MacroTechnicals - Stretched...

Shutdown risk is back in focus as markets look stretcheddd as it it's just looking for a reason to snap back and to get a short-term reset in some monster rallies.

Week4 MacroTechnicals - Complacency on Green Ice

US data supports a no-rush Fed, equities broaden but short-vol trades look crowded and now see reasons to take some conviction on bearish risk ideas as geopolitics heats up.

Week3 MacroTechnicals - Strong Growth, with a Side of Vol

AI capex and fiscal tailwinds keeps the growth outlook hot. Soft payrolls, but firmer wages, strong ISM services, even Challenger had some positive points for once. Equities broaden, SMids lead, but short-vol look stretched.

Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints

Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG

Week1 MacroTechnicals - BTC/XAG thoughts

Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.

Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town

Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.

Week51 MacroTechnicals - Tactical Gear On

December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.