Wk30 MacroTechnicals - Disruptive Forces
US–Iran escalation. AI competition.
Latest
Wk29 MacroTechnicals - A Crude Awakening
Meaningful risk of bearish regime-shift
Wk28 MacroTechnicals - Hawkwardly Optimistic
Tension between tighter liquidity and positive sentiment continues...
Wk27 MacroTechnicals - The Price of Exceptionalism
Quarter-end review and just more of the same risks - AI capex and model commoditisation, strong growth and inflation, and tigher fincon
Wk26 MacroTechnicals - No Breadth of Fresh Air
Equities firm but leadership narrows as the Fed’s hawkish turn erodes breadth. Beneath the surface, Tighter conditions and AI-profit risks point to a fragile medium-term outlook.
Wk25 MacroTechnicals - Sticky Landing
Deal-on Risk-on is back, yields lower, but don't think the market will be Warshing away hiking risks too soon
Wk24 MacroTechnicals - Trimmed Gets Mean
If CPI confirms bleed through into core, there is nothing Warsh can say or do to convince the market otherwise
Wk23 MacroTechnicals - Dispersion Trap
Comfortable markets, uncomfortable backdrop
Wk22 MacroTechnicals - Bullish Optics, Bearish Reality
AI and Iran deal optimism collides with rising inflation risk and tightening fincon
Wk21 MacroTechnicals - Bloody Car Crash
Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership
Wk20 MacroTechnicals - Is This The Top?
Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution
Wk19 - Sell in May and Go Away?
Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.
Wk18 MacroTechnicals - Deal or No Deal?
Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.
Wk17 MacroTechnicals - The Rubber Band Trade
Geopolitical tensions persist and energy-driven inflation builds, markets may be underpricing deeper macro risks beneath a technically driven rebound
Wk16 MacroTechnicals - 'Stag'-gering Denial
Markets are trading relief but macro backdrop grows more fragile. We reflect on recent developments against our going views and cover why we are biased toward trades that respect the possibility of markets underpricing stagflation risks.
Wk15 MacroTechnicals - Dead Cat Bounce
Durable bottom or just a dead-cat bounce?
Wk14 MacroTechnicals - Contextual Insights
Oil shocks do not land the same way in every cycle. We compare 1979, 1990 and 2022 to today’s 2026 backdrop to assess whether equities are nearing a durable relief rally — or facing a more persistent stagflationary squeeze.
Wk13 MacroTechnicals - Echoes of 2022
2022 may be a more relevant roadmap for 2026 than markets assume. Reviewing the macro and geopolitical parallels, why the Iran conflict may drag on, and which trading themes to keep in mind.
Wk12 MacroTechnicals - If Iran Stands, Trump Doesn't
Stagflation risks are building and reshaping the macro regime. We assess the current backdrop to examine whether these conditions could be short-lived or likely to persist.
Who Is Actually Running the Islamic Republic of Iran Now?
Wk11 MacroTechnicals - Letting The Winners Run
Geopolitical basket and stronger Dollar thesis may still have further to run, and an old discussion with a colleague shapes how I manage my book today.
Wk10 MacroTechnicals - Ballistic Volatility
A long and stretched risk-on cycle now meets fresh war and inflation risks with accelerants in place.
Wk9 MacroTechnicals - Trading Ranges, not Dollar Places
Dollar debate is just noise, tactical playbook for a choppy SPX/ES tape and vol regime and how the latest data trends shapes my views
Wk8 MacroTechnicals - Mood Swings
Weaker breadth, elevated vol, and a negative-gamma tape spells more choppy trading