Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town
Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.
Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.
Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership
Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution
Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.
Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.