Wk32 MacroTechnicals - The Credibility Tantrum (That Was)
Long-end tantrum may be done for now
Long-end tantrum may be done for now
Risk view stays bearish: tighter liquidity conditions ongoing AI concerns, weak equity leadership, vol expansion,
US–Iran escalation. AI competition.
Meaningful risk of bearish regime-shift
Tension between tighter liquidity and positive sentiment continues...
Quarter-end review and just more of the same risks - AI capex and model commoditisation, strong growth and inflation, and tigher fincon
Equities firm but leadership narrows as the Fed’s hawkish turn erodes breadth. Beneath the surface, Tighter conditions and AI-profit risks point to a fragile medium-term outlook.
Deal-on Risk-on is back, yields lower, but don't think the market will be Warshing away hiking risks too soon
If CPI confirms bleed through into core, there is nothing Warsh can say or do to convince the market otherwise
Comfortable markets, uncomfortable backdrop
AI and Iran deal optimism collides with rising inflation risk and tightening fincon
Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership