Week42 MacroTechnicals - Volmageddon-esque?
A Volmageddon-esque Setup?
A Volmageddon-esque Setup?
Pay close attention to real-rates...
Market expectations are colliding with shifting economic data, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks that together, may well set the tone for the weeks ahead.
Seasonal volatility never came, stocks are raging higher, fed delivered a cut, economic data has been good. Strange as it may sound, I think the biggest risks to all of those is that the good times keeps rolling on further that would prompt a tightening response in the rates market.
Some thoughts on major narratives showing signs of exhaustion into potential turning points around FOMC and OPEX, and for a major economy for a compelling trade call.
A lot of downside risks is in the price, and seeing strong potential of a mispricing and misplaced growth-concerns.
Expectations extremely dovish, vols somewhat muted, economic growth robust, fincon easy; for a highly critical week or two that has the potential to cause a polarising shift in sentiment from a cut in September to the possibility of no cuts at all this year, market appears ill-prepared.
Growth is strong and you're dovish?
“Markets are just positions” ‘X’ has been very busy dissecting and opining on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this weekend, and what stood out to me in particular is the many views that pointed to the price action to substantiate their view. We believe this is wrong without understanding the
Plenty of mixed signals...
Big picture trade ideas I explore potential themes and tactical opportunities around the major (except JPY and CHF) over the coming weeks, and hopefully the months ahead should some of those views take shape.
Fed is stuck, but so are vols It’s Jackson Hole this week – usually a time when we hear policy signals and though unlikely this time, and considering how the market is priced, fading the extremes is probably not a bad strategy this week on both ends of the USD