2025.08.19 FX Strategy

Big picture trade ideas

I explore potential themes and tactical opportunities around the major (except JPY and CHF) over the coming weeks, and hopefully the months ahead should some of those views take shape.

Wk21 MacroTechnicals - Bloody Car Crash

Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership

Wk20 MacroTechnicals - Is This The Top?

Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution

Wk19 - Sell in May and Go Away?

Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.

Wk18 MacroTechnicals - Deal or No Deal?

Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.