MT Trading

Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town

Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.

Week51 MacroTechnicals - Tactical Gear On

December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.

Week50 MacroTechnicals - Are We Still FOMU'ing?

Goldilocks US data supports risk, but I’m watching for further bear steepening and bouts of rates volatility. Positioning stays core long, but I’m tactically bearish small caps and metals, bullish USD and NZD, bearish CAD and JPY, and still look to buy cross-JPY on dips.

Week49 MacroTechnicals - Six-Seven

We were on six, now seven! 🤲🤲 Is there fuel for an eighth?

Trading Strategy - TrendX

Trend Exhaustion Indicator

Week48 MacroTechnicals - Basing for a year-end rally

US data stays resilient; December FOMC is finely balanced with members expressing more caution. Rough week for Equities but may stabilise if volatility eases from here. Safe-haven flows supported Treasuries and USD causing distortions in rate differentials requiring careful evaluation.

Week47 MacroTechnicals- Bullish but doubtful

A revival in risk is at the mercy of NVDA earnings. Aside that, I don't see what bullish arguments can be made...

Week46 MacroTechnicals - Buy Everything

Buy everything! But beware of higher rates too.

Week45 MacroTechnicals - Tailwinds become Headwinds

Big news. Conventional wisdom would say this is massively risk-on - 1) a swift reversal in all retaliatory measures may have come as a slight surprise, and 2) the 1-year truce will now lift a huge veil of uncertainty that has weighed on economic activity for the majority of

Week44 MacroTechnicals - Relative Exceptionalism

Trump, China, and trade - why this will be the overriding driver of markets and likely to extend the bull run in risk. Returning to a popular USD framework. A longer-term thesis for the USD. Game plan

Week43 MacroTechnicals - Flippage

Flippage - Was bearish risk this time last week, but a TACO headline and Trump confirming the meeting with Xi would go ahead to result in trade tensions simmering down till the end of the month, as well as how the charts have evolved over the last week has shifted my view on risk.

Week42 MacroTechnicals - Volmageddon-esque?

A Volmageddon-esque Setup?