Weekly Notes 2021/07/19
Bearish reversal looks set to continue this week and I’m looking to answer whether this is the beginning of a broader pullback or whether…
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Wk21 MacroTechnicals - Bloody Car Crash
Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership
Wk20 MacroTechnicals - Is This The Top?
Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution
Wk19 - Sell in May and Go Away?
Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.
Wk18 MacroTechnicals - Deal or No Deal?
Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.