Weekly Note 2022.07.18
Going full bear on Recession and Earnings risks
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Wk35 Weekly MacroTechnicals - Oil Slicks the Long End
Failed Bessentvention, ATH crack spreads, Elevated inflation risks, Debasement skepticism
Wk34 MacroTechnicals - VIX Sleeps While Oil Creeps
Messy thematic signals - easing macro regimes and low VIX clashes with rising commodity prices
Wk33 MacroTechnicals - From Tantrums to Complacency...
Rates calmer but term premium higher, risk sentiment strong but overly complacent?
Wk32 MacroTechnicals - The Credibility Tantrum (That Was)
Long-end tantrum may be done for now