2023.10.24 Weekly Notes

Wk21 MacroTechnicals - Bloody Car Crash

Risk backdrop has shifted. Fed hike now priced by mid-2027, yields and dollar are moving higher, EMFX and metals started to crack, and equities are literally hanging by a thread of AI leadership

Wk20 MacroTechnicals - Is This The Top?

Stunning rally has challenged my bearish view but energy related risks accompanied by tighter financial conditions with little interest in the left tail argue for caution

Wk19 - Sell in May and Go Away?

Markets remain priced for a benign outcome, but the macro backdrop is shifting. This week, I review the age old seasonality adage, lay out my bear case for risk assets and look at some high conviction RV themes.

Wk18 MacroTechnicals - Deal or No Deal?

Oil is rebounding amid a deal deadlock, rate expectations turning hawkish again, and markets are under-appreciating a stagflationary shift.