2023.03.13 Weekly Note

Cash is not trash

The NY Fed produces analysis that estimates the probability of a recession based on the term spread readings. At this point, their probability of a recession is rated higher than at any time since the early 1980s. In anyone’s language, the yield curve is at an extreme reading.

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Wk32 MacroTechnicals - The Credibility Tantrum (That Was)

Wk32 MacroTechnicals - The Credibility Tantrum (That Was)

Long-end tantrum may be done for now

Wk31 MacroTechnicals - 'More' of the Same

Wk31 MacroTechnicals - 'More' of the Same

Risk view stays bearish: tighter liquidity conditions ongoing AI concerns, weak equity leadership, vol expansion,

Wk30 MacroTechnicals - Disruptive Forces

Wk30 MacroTechnicals - Disruptive Forces

US–Iran escalation. AI competition.

Wk29 MacroTechnicals - A Crude Awakening

Wk29 MacroTechnicals - A Crude Awakening

Meaningful risk of bearish regime-shift