2025.04.28 Weekly
Don’t care and won’t care
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Week4 MacroTechnicals - Complacency on Green Ice
US data supports a no-rush Fed, equities broaden but short-vol trades look crowded and now see reasons to take some conviction on bearish risk ideas as geopolitics heats up.
Week3 MacroTechnicals - Strong Growth, with a Side of Vol
AI capex and fiscal tailwinds keeps the growth outlook hot. Soft payrolls, but firmer wages, strong ISM services, even Challenger had some positive points for once. Equities broaden, SMids lead, but short-vol look stretched.
Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints
Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG
Week1 MacroTechnicals - BTC/XAG thoughts
Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.