2025.02.03 Weekly
Trump 1.0 ≠ 2.0
Trump 1.0 ≠ 2.0
Stagflation risks are building and reshaping the macro regime. We assess the current backdrop to examine whether these conditions could be short-lived or likely to persist.
Geopolitical basket and stronger Dollar thesis may still have further to run, and an old discussion with a colleague shapes how I manage my book today.
A long and stretched risk-on cycle now meets fresh war and inflation risks with accelerants in place.